Performance simulation of the transportation process risk of bauxite carriers based on the Markov Chain and Cloud model
Wu, J and Hu, S and Jin, Y and Fei, J and Fu, S, Performance simulation of the transportation process risk of bauxite carriers based on the Markov Chain and Cloud model, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 7, (4) Article 108. ISSN 2077-1312 (2019) [Refereed Article]
China imports a large quantity of bauxite each year. Bauxite in fine particles with high moisture has a high risk of liquefaction during the maritime transportation process, which is harmful to the stability and safety of the carrier. To ensure safe shipping, it is necessary to pay attention to the effects of the operation of cargo, the ship’s maneuvering and the ocean environment during the whole transportation process. The simulation of the process risk helps to develop measures to intervene with the cargo behavior to keep the risk to an acceptable level. This study examined the transportation process of a bauxite carrier using the Markov Chain method at different stages of loading, unberthing, departure and sea navigation. Based on the risk transfer matrix of the operational status at different stages of transportation, a cloud simulation model was developed to analyze the transportation process risk of a ship carrying bulk bauxite. Results: the research revealed that the risk evolution rule of the solid bulk cargoes with potential liquefaction during the transportation process, especially bauxite. The risk alteration during the prophase of the transportation process conforms to the rule of the "spoon curve". Conclusions: a simulation model of the process risk based on the Markov Chain Cloud is suitable for the simulation analysis of the transportation risk of the bulk bauxite carrier. The outcomes of this study may contribute to better safety management to prevent the occurrence of ship capsizing.