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Global Carbon Budget 2017

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Le Quere, C and Andrew, RM and Friedlingstein, P and Sitch, S and Pongratz, J and Manning, AC and Korsbakken, JI and Peters, GP and Canadell, JG and Jackson, RB and Boden, TA and Tans, PP and Andrews, OD and Arora, VK and Bakker, DCE and Barbero, L and Becker, M and Betts, RA and Bopp, L and Chevallier, F and Chini, LP and Ciais, P and Cosca, CE and Cross, J and Currie, K and Gasser, T and Harris, I and Hauck, J and Haverd, V and Houghton, RA and Hunt, CW and Hurtt, G and Ilyina, T and Jain, AK and Kato, E and Kautz, M and Keeling, RF and Klein Goldewijk, K and Kortzinger, A and Landschutzer, P and Lefevre, N and Lenton, A and Lienert, S and Lima, I and Lombardozzi, D and Metzl, N and Millero, F and Monteiro, PMS and Munro, DR and Nabel, JEMS and Nakaoka, SI and Nojiri, Y and Padin, XA and Peregon, A and Pfeil, B and Pierrot, D and Poulter, B and Rehder, G and Reimer, J and Rodenbeck, C and Schwinger, J and Seferian, R and Skjelvan, I and Stocker, BD and Tian, H and Tilbrook, B and Tubiello, FN and van der Laan-Luijkx, IT and van der Werf, GR and Van Heuven, S and Viovy, N and Vuichard, N and Walker, AP and Watson, AJ and Wiltshire, AJ and Zaehle, S and Zhu, D, Global Carbon Budget 2017, Earth System Science Data, 10, (1) pp. 405-448. ISSN 1866-3508 (2018) [Refereed Article]


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© Author(s) 2018. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

DOI: doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:carbon budget, CO2 emissions, anthropogenic carbon dioxide
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Climate change science
Research Field:Climate change processes
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Understanding climate change not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Lenton, A (Dr Andrew Lenton)
UTAS Author:Tilbrook, B (Dr Bronte Tilbrook)
ID Code:131879
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:372
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2019-04-10
Last Modified:2019-05-06
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