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Early predictors of summative assessment performance in general practice post-graduate training: A retrospective cohort study


Stewart, R and Cooling, N and Emblen, G and Turnock, A and Tapley, A and Holliday, E and Ball, J and Juckel, J and Magin, P, Early predictors of summative assessment performance in general practice post-graduate training: A retrospective cohort study, Medical Teacher, 40, (11) pp. 1166-1174. ISSN 0142-159X (2018) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

DOI: doi:10.1080/0142159X.2018.1470609


Background:Success in summative general practice (GP) training assessments is one indicator of competence for practice. Early-training factors predictive of outcomes would facilitate targeted interventions aimed at preventing candidate failures.

Methods: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of Australian GP trainees in two training organizations over five years. Associations of pre-training and early-training predictors with summative examination scores in an Applied Knowledge Test (AKT), Key Features Paper (KFP), and Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE), plus failure on any one of these, were tested via univariate and multivariable regression. Predictors were program-entry selection-score decile, pre-training-commencement multiple choice assessment (MCQA), direct observation of practice performance, and clinical supervisor reports.

Results: On univariate analyses, selection decile and MCQA were associated with all outcomes except AKT. There were no associations of other predictors with any outcomes. On multivariable analysis, selection decile and MCQA performance were predictive of OSCE performance. MCQA performance was also predictive of KFP performance. On multivariable analysis, no predictors were associated with AKT performance or failing any examination.

Conclusions: Selection decile and pre-commencement MCQA performance were predictive of performance in some summative assessments. These findings could inform selection policies and targeted early interventions for trainees at most risk for exam failure.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:extrasynaptic, GABA, kinase, tonic, plasticity
Research Division:Health Sciences
Research Group:Health services and systems
Research Field:Health services and systems not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in the health sciences
UTAS Author:Cooling, N (Dr Nick Cooling)
UTAS Author:Turnock, A (Dr Allison Turnock)
ID Code:131686
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:2
Deposited By:Medicine
Deposited On:2019-04-01
Last Modified:2019-07-30

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