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Comparative study on probability distributions of riser responses

Citation

Armstrong, C and Dunn, C and Chin, C and Drobyshevski, Y, Comparative study on probability distributions of riser responses, Proceedings of the Thirteenth (2018) ISOPE Pacific-Asia Offshore Mechanics Symposium, 14-17 October 2018, Jeju Island, Korea, pp. 129-138. ISBN 9781880653869 (2018) [Refereed Conference Paper]


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Abstract

The responses of a flexible riser caused by motions of a weather-vaning FPSO subjected to two cyclonic storm events are investigated numerically. The objective was to comparatively study probability distributions of the riser responses to determine their statistical properties and the distribution types appropriate for particular responses. This will contribute to a method for the prediction of the extreme responses of the flexible riser during cyclonic events. Simulations of the riser responses in two cyclonic storm events were conducted including effects of wind, waves and current. Several types of probability distributions were fitted to the generated datasets using maximum likelihood estimates. Distributions tested included Rayleigh, Normal, Lognormal, Weibull, Generalized Extreme Value, Gamma, Burr, Birnbaum-Saunders and Beta. In addition, Hermite moment models were fitted in an attempt to use a single probabilistic model for all responses. A comparison was conducted using the goodness of fit tests to determine the distribution that best represented the generated data. Hermite moment models based on four moments produced good fits across both storm cases and for the majority of responses. The findings of this study provide foundations for development of more bespoke distributions for riser responses. The implication of using appropriate parent distributions for short and long term response analysis and the association between parent and extreme value distributions in both time and frequency domain contexts are discussed.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Keywords:Flexible Riser; Parent distributions; Extreme riser responses; Statistical distributions; Goodness of fit; Hermite Moment Model
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime Engineering
Research Field:Ocean Engineering
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding Knowledge in Engineering
UTAS Author:Armstrong, C (Mr Curtis Armstrong)
UTAS Author:Dunn, C (Mr Christopher Dunn)
UTAS Author:Chin, C (Dr Chris Chin)
ID Code:131619
Year Published:2018
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2019-03-27
Last Modified:2019-04-08
Downloads:0

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