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A general framework for combining ecosystem models

Citation

Spence, MA and Blanchard, JL and Rossberg, AG and Heath, MR and Heymans, JJ and Mackinson, S and Serpetti, N and Speirs, DC and Thorpe, RB and Blackwell, PG, A general framework for combining ecosystem models, Fish and Fisheries, 19, (6) pp. 1031-1042. ISSN 1467-2960 (2018) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

2018 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

DOI: doi:10.1111/faf.12310

Abstract

When making predictions about ecosystems, we often have available a number of different ecosystem models that attempt to represent their dynamics in a detailed mechanistic way. Each of these can be used as a simulator of large‐scale experiments and make projections about the fate of ecosystems under different scenarios to support the development of appropriate management strategies. However, structural differences, systematic discrepancies and uncertainties lead to different models giving different predictions. This is further complicated by the fact that the models may not be run with the same functional groups, spatial structure or time scale. Rather than simply trying to select a "best" model, or taking some weighted average, it is important to exploit the strengths of each of the models, while learning from the differences between them. To achieve this, we construct a flexible statistical model of the relationships between a collection of mechanistic models and their biases, allowing for structural and parameter uncertainty and for different ways of representing reality. Using this statistical meta‐model, we can combine prior beliefs, model estimates and direct observations using Bayesian methods and make coherent predictions of future outcomes under different scenarios with robust measures of uncertainty. In this study, we take a diverse ensemble of existing North Sea ecosystem models and demonstrate the utility of our framework by applying it to answer the question what would have happened to demersal fish if fishing was to stop.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:ecosystem modelling, fisheries, ecosystem assessment, Bayesian statistics, complex models, multimodel ensemble, multispecies models, simulation models, uncertainty analysis
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Ecological Applications
Research Field:Ecological Applications not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Ecosystem Assessment and Management
Objective Field:Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales
UTAS Author:Blanchard, JL (Dr Julia Blanchard)
ID Code:131451
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:1
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2019-03-19
Last Modified:2019-04-29
Downloads:1 View Download Statistics

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