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The certainty of uncertainty in marine conservation and what to do about it
Citation
Bednarek, AT and Cooper, AB and Cresswell, KA and Mangel, M and Satterthwaite, WH and Simpfendorfer, CA and Wiedenmann, JR, The certainty of uncertainty in marine conservation and what to do about it, Bulletin of Marine Science, 87, (2) pp. 177-195. ISSN 0007-4977 (2011) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
© 2011 Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science of the University of Miami
DOI: doi:10.5343/bms.2010.1060
Abstract
The confounding effects of difficult sampling and dynamic systems make
uncertainty the norm for managers of marine ecosystems. Thus managers need
approaches that use relatively small amounts of information and account for a wide
suite of biological and physical influences. Here we use a case study approach to
review the use of several possible techniques for making decisions about marine
ecosystems despite uncertainty. We describe the use of expert judgment in the
rebuilding plans for data-poor US fisheries, models to manage the krill fishery in the
Southern Ocean to account for both the impacts of climate change and the resource
needs of krill predators, an integrated risk assessment framework to prioritize shark
management in the Atlantic Ocean despite severe data limitations, and models
to account for climate impacts on salmonid populations in California. Through
this review, we show that with limited information, managers can use models to
explore how highly variable systems might respond to management options under
different scenarios. Expert judgment can help shape the assumptions that form the
basis for those models and propose sensible boundaries within which management
options can be developed. A weight of evidence approach can take advantage of
small amounts of information from multiple sources, including models and expert
judgment. Although none of these approaches is perfect, they can help provide a
logical starting point for conservation and management, despite the certainty of
uncertainty.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | uncertainty, marine conservation, models |
| Research Division: | Mathematical Sciences |
| Research Group: | Applied mathematics |
| Research Field: | Biological mathematics |
| Objective Division: | Expanding Knowledge |
| Objective Group: | Expanding knowledge |
| Objective Field: | Expanding knowledge in the biological sciences |
| UTAS Author: | Cresswell, KA (Dr Katie Cresswell) |
| ID Code: | 131162 |
| Year Published: | 2011 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 7 |
| Deposited By: | Fisheries and Aquaculture |
| Deposited On: | 2019-03-05 |
| Last Modified: | 2019-04-26 |
| Downloads: | 35 View Download Statistics |
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