We develop an age‐structured model for two krill populations near the Antarctic Peninsula and estimate the relative recruitment events that reproduce observed trends in krill abundance and age structure. Estimates of recruitment in both regions show a nonlinear relationship between recruitment and sea ice area in the combined Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas from the previous winter and spring, with large recruitment events occurring over a narrow range of ice area, and minimal recruitment otherwise. This finding may allow for an adaptive approach in which future catch limits are adjusted based on predictions of biomass. This result also suggests that the ecosystem may change dramatically once average ice area drops below the recruitment threshold.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Antarctic krill, sea ice, recruitment
Research Division:	Mathematical Sciences
Research Group:	Applied mathematics
Research Field:	Biological mathematics
Objective Division:	Environmental Management
Objective Group:	Management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments
Objective Field:	Biodiversity in Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments
UTAS Author:	Cresswell, KA (Dr Katie Cresswell)
ID Code:	131159
Year Published:	2009
Web of Science® Times Cited:	33
Deposited By:	Fisheries and Aquaculture
Deposited On:	2019-03-05
Last Modified:	2019-06-12
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