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Changes in technology and imperfect detection of nest contents impedes reliable estimates of population trends in burrowing seabirds
Citation
Lavers, JL and Hutton, I and Bond, AL, Changes in technology and imperfect detection of nest contents impedes reliable estimates of population trends in burrowing seabirds, Global Ecology and Conservation, 17 Article e00579. ISSN 2351-9894 (2019) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00579
Abstract
One of the most fundamental aspects of conservation biology is understanding trends in the abundance
of species and populations. This influences conservation interventions, threat abatement, and
management by implicitly or explicitly setting targets for favourable conservation states, such as an
increasing or stable population. Burrow-nesting seabirds present many challenges for determining
abundance reliably, which is further hampered by variability in the quality of previous surveys. We used
burrow scopes to determine the population status of Flesh-footed Shearwaters (Ardenna carneipes) at
their largest colony on Lord Howe Island, Australia, in 2018. We estimated a breeding population of
22,654 breeding pairs (95% CI: 8159-37,909). Comparing burrow scope models used in 2018 found more
than half of burrow contents (20/36 burrows examined) were classified differently. If this detection
probability is applied retroactively to surveys in 2002 and 2009, we estimate that the Flesh-footed
Shearwater population on Lord Howe has decreased by up to 50% in the last decade, but uncertainty
around previous surveys’ ability to reliably determine burrow contents means a direct comparison is not
possible. The decline in burrow density between 2018 and previous years adds further evidence that the
population may not be stable. Our results highlight a need for regular surveys to quantify detection
probability so that as video technology advances, previous population estimates remain comparable.
We urge caution when comparing population counts of burrowing seabirds using different technologies,
to ensure comparisons are meaningful.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | seabird ecology, breeding success, imperfect detection, Ardenna carneipes, detection probability, flesh-footed shearwater, Lord Howe Island, population status |
| Research Division: | Environmental Sciences |
| Research Group: | Environmental management |
| Research Field: | Conservation and biodiversity |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
| Objective Group: | Marine systems and management |
| Objective Field: | Marine biodiversity |
| UTAS Author: | Lavers, JL (Dr Jennifer Lavers) |
| UTAS Author: | Bond, AL (Dr Alexander Bond) |
| ID Code: | 131127 |
| Year Published: | 2019 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 13 |
| Deposited By: | Ecology and Biodiversity |
| Deposited On: | 2019-03-04 |
| Last Modified: | 2020-01-06 |
| Downloads: | 32 View Download Statistics |
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