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Understanding the spatially variable effects of climate change on rice yield for three ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981-2010

Citation

Ara, I and Lewis, M and Ostendorf, B, Understanding the spatially variable effects of climate change on rice yield for three ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981-2010, Advances in Agriculture, 2017 Article 6287156. ISSN 2356-654X (2017) [Refereed Article]


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DOI: doi:10.1155/2017/6287156

Abstract

Climate change will impact on rice food security in many parts of the world, including Bangladesh. Little attention has been given to understanding the impact of climate on rice yield for three main ecotypes (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in different areas of the country. The aim of this paper was to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice yield and climatic variables and the spatially variable climate effects on rice yield for these ecotypes in Bangladesh during 1981-2010 by employing linear mixed models and generalized linear models. The results demonstrated the substantial spatiotemporal variations of rice yield for all ecotypes across the country. Rice yield for ecotypes was more susceptible to temperature changes than rainfall effects. Modelling of a 1C temperature increase in the country showed strong regional differences in rice yield for these ecotypes. The study concludes that future temperature changes are likely to change regional rice yield for all ecotypes and hence impact food security. The results have important consequences for food security by indicating the need for appropriate region-specific adaptation measures to reduce rice yield variability in the future. The results show the need to consider spatial differences for policy development to improve food security in Bangladesh.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Bangladesh, climate change, rice, modeling, policy managemnet
Research Division:Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
Research Group:Agriculture, Land and Farm Management
Research Field:Sustainable Agricultural Development
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate and Climate Change not elsewhere classified
Author:Ara, I (Dr Iffat Ara)
ID Code:129107
Year Published:2017
Deposited By:TIA - Research Institute
Deposited On:2018-11-09
Last Modified:2018-11-09
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