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The development of a government cash forecasting model


Iskandar, I and Willett, R and Xu, S, The development of a government cash forecasting model, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 30, (4) pp. 368-383. ISSN 1096-3367 (2018) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright Statement

2018 Emerald Publishing Limited

DOI: doi:10.1108/JPBAFM-04-2018-0036


Purpose: Government cash forecasting is central to achieving effective government cash management but research in this area is scarce. The purpose of this paper is to address this shortcoming by developing a government cash forecasting model with an accuracy acceptable to the cash manager in emerging economies.

Design/methodology/approach: The paper follows "top-down" approach to develop a government cash forecasting model. It uses the Indonesian Government expenditure data from 2008 to 2015 as an illustration. The study utilises ARIMA, neural network and hybrid models to investigate the best procedure for predicting government expenditure.

Findings: The results show that the best method to build a government cash forecasting model is subject to forecasting performance measurement tool and the data used.

Research limitations/implications: The study uses the data from one government only as its sample, which may limit the ability to generalise the results to a wider population.

Originality/value: This paper is novel in developing a government cash forecasting model in the context of emerging economies.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:neural networks, hybrid models, ARIMA model, government cash forecasting, public expenditure management
Research Division:Information and Computing Sciences
Research Group:Information systems
Research Field:Information modelling, management and ontologies
Objective Division:Information and Communication Services
Objective Group:Information services
Objective Field:Electronic information storage and retrieval services
UTAS Author:Iskandar, I (Mr Iskandar Iskandar)
UTAS Author:Xu, S (Dr Shuxiang Xu)
ID Code:129041
Year Published:2018
Deposited By:Information and Communication Technology
Deposited On:2018-11-05
Last Modified:2019-02-26

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