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Despite recent advances in quantifying land-use/cover change (LUCC) transition potentials, transition rules are often not transparent and uncertainty is rarely made explicit. Here, we introduce DoTRules - a dictionary of trusted rules - as a transparent alternative to calculate transition potential in cellular automata models. Rules relate LUCC variables to the observed historical changes. Shannon entropy is calculated to assess the uncertainty of each rule, and the most trusted rules are used to project future LUCC. DoTRules produces rule-level uncertainty estimates, which can be mapped. In a case study of the Ahvaz region of Iran, the overall accuracy of LUCC simulation calibrated using DoTRules approach was very similar to simulations calibrated with the state-of-the-art random forest, but DoTRules provides a transparent approach where transition rule information and uncertainty can be readily accessed and interpreted. The results demonstrate that DoTRules has potential to derive new insights into LUCC processes.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	entropy, land-use/cover change, uncertainty, urban planning, modelling, simulation
Research Division:	Engineering
Research Group:	Geomatic engineering
Research Field:	Geospatial information systems and geospatial data modelling
Objective Division:	Environmental Management
Objective Group:	Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:	Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems
UTAS Author:	Roodposhti, MS (Mr Majid Roodposhti)
UTAS Author:	Aryal, J (Dr Jagannath Aryal)
ID Code:	128985
Year Published:	2019 (online first 2018)
Web of Science® Times Cited:	22
Deposited By:	Geography and Spatial Science
Deposited On:	2018-10-30
Last Modified:	2019-04-29
Downloads:	77 View Download Statistics