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Changes in lightning fire incidence in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, 1980-2016
Citation
Styger, J and Marsden-Smedley, J and Kirkpatrick, J, Changes in lightning fire incidence in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, 1980-2016, Fire, 1, (3) Article 38. ISSN 2571-6255 (2018) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2018 the authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Abstract
The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) has globally significant natural and cultural values, some of which are dependent on the absence of fire or the presence of particular fire regimes. Planned burning is currently used to reduce the risk of loss of world heritage values from unplanned fires, but large and damaging fires still occur, with lightning as the primary ignition source. Lightning-caused fire was rare in the TWWHA before 2000. There has since been an increase in both the number of fires following lightning storms and the area burnt by these fires. In the absence of a direct measurement of lightning strike incidence, we tested whether changes in rainfall, soil dryness and fuel load were responsible for these changes in fire incidence and extent. There were no relationships between these variables and the incidence of fires associated with lightning, but the variability in the Soil Dryness Index and the mean of 25% of driest values did predict both the number and area of fires. Thus, it appears that an increase in the proportion of lightning strikes that occur in dry conditions has increased ignition efficiency. These changes have important implications for the management of the TWWHA’s values, as higher projected fuel loads and drier climates could result in a further increase in the number of fires associated with lightning.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | lightning, fire, Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, climate change |
| Research Division: | Environmental Sciences |
| Research Group: | Environmental management |
| Research Field: | Environmental management |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
| Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
| Objective Field: | Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts) |
| UTAS Author: | Styger, J (Ms Jennifer Styger) |
| UTAS Author: | Marsden-Smedley, J (Dr Jonathan Marsden-Smedley) |
| UTAS Author: | Kirkpatrick, J (Professor James Kirkpatrick) |
| ID Code: | 128910 |
| Year Published: | 2018 |
| Deposited By: | Geography and Spatial Science |
| Deposited On: | 2018-10-23 |
| Last Modified: | 2019-03-15 |
| Downloads: | 58 View Download Statistics |
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