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Dynamics and predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges


Santoso, A and Hendon, H and Watkins, A and Power, S and Dommenget, D and England, M and Frankcombe, L and Holbrook, NJ and Holmes, R and Hope, P and Lim, E-P and Luo, J-J and McGregor, S and Neske, S and Nguyen, H and Pepler, A and Rashid, H and Sen Gupta, A and Taschetto, AS and Wang, G and Abellan, E and Sullivan, A and Huguenin, M and Gamble, F and Delage, F, Dynamics and predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, (3) pp. 403-420. ISSN 0003-0007 (2019) [Refereed Article]


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DOI: doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0057.1


El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate including in the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability, and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries, and for the international ENSO research community.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), global climate, atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, Australia
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical oceanography
Objective Division:Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:Understanding climate change
Objective Field:Climate variability (excl. social impacts)
UTAS Author:Holbrook, NJ (Professor Neil Holbrook)
ID Code:128877
Year Published:2019
Web of Science® Times Cited:30
Deposited By:Oceans and Cryosphere
Deposited On:2018-10-19
Last Modified:2020-07-16
Downloads:9 View Download Statistics

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