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Predictive utility of childhood anthropometric measures on adult glucose homeostasis measures: a 20-year cohort study


Wu, F and Ho, V and Fraser, BJ and Schmidt, MD and Dwyer, T and Venn, AJ and Magnussen, CG, Predictive utility of childhood anthropometric measures on adult glucose homeostasis measures: a 20-year cohort study, International Journal of Obesity, 42, (10) pp. 1762-1770. ISSN 0307-0565 (2018) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2018 Springer Nature Limited

DOI: doi:10.1038/s41366-018-0177-z


Background/Objectives: Childhood body mass index (BMI) predicts adult glucose homeostasis measures and type 2 diabetes mellitus, but little is known about the predictive utility of other anthropometric measures in childhood. We aimed to identify the anthropometric measure in childhood that best predicts adult glucose homeostasis measures and examine if the combination of additional anthropometric measures further improves predictive utility.

Methods: A 20-year follow-up of children participating in the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study (n = 2345, aged 7-15 years at baseline). Baseline anthropometric measures were waist circumference (WC), WC adjusted for height, weight adjusted for height, hip circumference, waist-hip-ratio, waist-height-ratio, BMI, conicity index, abdominal volume index (AVI), body adiposity index, and a body shape index. Fasting glucose and insulin levels measured at follow-up were used to define insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR), low beta-cell function (HOMA2-β), high fasting insulin, and impaired fasting glucose (IFG).

Results: All child anthropometric measures were significantly associated with HOMA2-IR, HOMA2-β, and high fasting insulin (relative risk = 1.12-1.55), but not IFG. AVI had the largest area under receiver-operating curve (AUC) in predicting adult HOMA2-IR (AUC, 95% confidence interval: 0.610, 0.584-0.637), HOMA2-β (0.615, 0.588-0.642) and high fasting insulin (0.613, 0.587-0.639). Combining each additional anthropometric measure with AVI did not appreciably increase predictive utility (an increase of 0.001-0.002 in AUC, p > 0.05 for all).

Conclusions: Anthropometric measures from a single time-point in childhood are associated with insulin-related outcomes 20-year later in adulthood. However, overall predictive utility was low and was not substantially enhanced by combining multiple different child anthropometric measures.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:glucose homeostasis, childhood body mass index, anthropometric measures
Research Division:Health Sciences
Research Group:Epidemiology
Research Field:Epidemiology not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Clinical health
Objective Field:Clinical health not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Wu, F (Dr Feitong Wu)
UTAS Author:Ho, V (Ms Val Ho)
UTAS Author:Fraser, BJ (Dr Brooklyn Fraser)
UTAS Author:Dwyer, T (Professor Terry Dwyer)
UTAS Author:Venn, AJ (Professor Alison Venn)
UTAS Author:Magnussen, CG (Associate Professor Costan Magnussen)
ID Code:128251
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:6
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2018-09-11
Last Modified:2022-07-05

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