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Predictive utility of childhood anthropometric measures on adult glucose homeostasis measures: a 20-year cohort study
Methods: A 20-year follow-up of children participating in the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study (n = 2345, aged 7-15 years at baseline). Baseline anthropometric measures were waist circumference (WC), WC adjusted for height, weight adjusted for height, hip circumference, waist-hip-ratio, waist-height-ratio, BMI, conicity index, abdominal volume index (AVI), body adiposity index, and a body shape index. Fasting glucose and insulin levels measured at follow-up were used to define insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR), low beta-cell function (HOMA2-β), high fasting insulin, and impaired fasting glucose (IFG).
Results: All child anthropometric measures were significantly associated with HOMA2-IR, HOMA2-β, and high fasting insulin (relative risk = 1.12-1.55), but not IFG. AVI had the largest area under receiver-operating curve (AUC) in predicting adult HOMA2-IR (AUC, 95% confidence interval: 0.610, 0.584-0.637), HOMA2-β (0.615, 0.588-0.642) and high fasting insulin (0.613, 0.587-0.639). Combining each additional anthropometric measure with AVI did not appreciably increase predictive utility (an increase of 0.001-0.002 in AUC, p > 0.05 for all).
Conclusions: Anthropometric measures from a single time-point in childhood are associated with insulin-related outcomes 20-year later in adulthood. However, overall predictive utility was low and was not substantially enhanced by combining multiple different child anthropometric measures.
History
Publication title
International Journal of ObesityVolume
42Issue
10Pagination
1762-1770ISSN
0307-0565Department/School
Menzies Institute for Medical ResearchPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
Macmillan Building, 4 Crinan St, London, England, N1 9XwRights statement
Copyright 2018 Springer Nature LimitedRepository Status
- Restricted