There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC_95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC_5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Bayesian network, fugacity, ecological risk assessment, oil spill, Arctic
Research Division:	Engineering
Research Group:	Environmental Engineering
Research Field:	Environmental Engineering Modelling
Objective Division:	Transport
Objective Group:	Environmentally Sustainable Transport
Objective Field:	Environmentally Sustainable Transport not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:	Arzaghi, E (Mr Ehsan Arzaghi)
UTAS Author:	Garaniya, V (Dr Vikram Garaniya)
UTAS Author:	Binns, J (Professor Jonathan Binns)
UTAS Author:	Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:	128064
Year Published:	2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:	4
Deposited By:	NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:	2018-08-30
Last Modified:	2018-11-26
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