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An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline
Citation
Arzaghi, E and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Binns, J and Khan, F, An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 135 pp. 1117-1127. ISSN 0025-326X (2018) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2018 Elsevier Ltd.
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030
Abstract
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | Bayesian network, fugacity, ecological risk assessment, oil spill, Arctic |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Environmental engineering |
Research Field: | Air pollution modelling and control |
Objective Division: | Transport |
Objective Group: | Environmentally sustainable transport activities |
Objective Field: | Environmentally sustainable transport activities not elsewhere classified |
UTAS Author: | Arzaghi, E (Dr Ehsan Arzaghi) |
UTAS Author: | Garaniya, V (Associate Professor Vikram Garaniya) |
UTAS Author: | Binns, J (Professor Jonathan Binns) |
UTAS Author: | Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan) |
ID Code: | 128064 |
Year Published: | 2018 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 35 |
Deposited By: | NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics |
Deposited On: | 2018-08-30 |
Last Modified: | 2018-11-26 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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