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An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 20:53 authored by Ehsan ArzaghiEhsan Arzaghi, Abbassi, R, Vikrambhai GaraniyaVikrambhai Garaniya, Jonathan BinnsJonathan Binns, Faisal KhanFaisal Khan
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level.

History

Publication title

Marine Pollution Bulletin

Volume

135

Pagination

1117-1127

ISSN

0025-326X

Department/School

Australian Maritime College

Publisher

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2018 Elsevier Ltd.

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Environmentally sustainable transport activities not elsewhere classified

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