A spatial analysis of food security in Bangladesh, based on climate change, management practices and socio-economic variables

Food security has become crucial in many developing countries, especially those with large populations, including Bangladesh. Future uncertainties about environmental and socioeconomic changes, including climate change and the spatial variability thereof, need to be addressed. While it is well established that there are spatial differences in production, distribution and socio-economic conditions, no previous study on food security in Bangladesh has explicitly considered the spatial variability of factors that influence food security.

The main objectives of this tl1esis are: (1) to understand the need and potential for spatially informed policy development; (2) to assess the spatially variable climate effects on three main rice ecotypes (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in Bangladesh during 1981-2010; (3) to evaluate the combined impact of both climate and management factors on total rice yield and ( 4) to understand tl1e influence of household and regional capitals on food security in the North West region of Bangladesh.

The rice yield data was collated from the Agricultural Statistical Year Book of Bangladesh for the study period of 1981-2010. The climatic and management practices database was collated from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and the Agricultural Statistical Year Book of Bangladesh respectively for the same time period. The present study also used the 2010 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) dataset from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The results from the review of spatial aspects of food security (Chapter 2) showed that determinants of food security vary spatially in Bangladesh. This implies the need to consider a regional food security assessment in the county. The study indicated a potential way for better research and policy linkages in the country, to improve food security.

The climatic conditions of the growing period have a significant influence on rice yield across Bangladesh. Furthermore, the magnitude of the impact is ecotype-specific. This analysis indicates that any increase in temperature would decrease regional rice yield for Aus and Aman in many districts of the county However, regional Boro yield will derive benefit in some of the districts from increases in temperature (Chapter 3).

A more detailed analysis evaluates the relative influence of climate variability and management variables of the rice yield in Bangladesh. The total rice yield was more strongly dependent on management factors than climatic variables. Water management, through various types of irrigation, has become the most important determinant of rice yield (Chapter 4).

The key natural and management determinants were identified by the previous analysis (Chapter 3 and Chapter 4). Additional socio-economic factors were used for the subsequent analysis. Both household socio-economic assets and regional conditions were categorized as livelil1ood capitals in order to assess the influence of these on household calorie consumption and income. Physical and natural capitals exhibited a much greater share of explained variations in income than in calorie consumption. However, financial and human capitals are the catalysts for determining income. Diverse solutions to the liveliliood outcomes will be useful in the long term in the case of the intense use of different household and regional capitals to improve food security (Chapter 5).

Overall, the findings imply that policies to improve food security need to account for regional differences. Climate change, particularly temperature increase need to be considered as important, as this will affect the regional rice yield in most of the districts in Bangladesh. In addition to climate change, the means of irrigation will also impact on rice yield. The high dependence of rice production on the available means of irrigation implies that special attention needs to be given to the optimum use of ground water in order to sustain future use. On the other hand, sustainable socio-economic development may secure food access through an increase in income and nutrition consumption. The present thesis further suggests more region-specific investigations should be undertaken in order to understand spatial responses to food security, more completely, incorporating further climatic variables, natural resources, technological improvements and infrastructural development.