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A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines


Arzaghi, E and Abaei, MM and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Binns, J and Chin, C and Khan, FI, A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 118 pp. 307-315. ISSN 0957-5820 (2018) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2018 Institution of Chemical Engineers

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023


The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more exploration activities will also increase the possibility of oil spill during the entire process including production and transport. A comprehensive risk assessment based on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) method is then required during the planning and operation stages of future Arctic oil production facilities. In the exposure analysis stage, ERA needs an evaluation of the oil concentration profile in all media. This paper presents a methodology for predicting the stochastic fate and transport of spilled oil in ice-infested regions. For this purpose, level IV fugacity models are used to estimate the time-variable concentration of oil. A hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) is adopted to estimate the probability of time to reach a concentration (TRTC) based on the observations made from a fugacity model. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a subsea pipeline accident resulting in the release of 100 t of Statfjord oil into the Labrador Sea is considered as the case study.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:fugacity, fate and transport, Bayesian inference, hierarchical Bayesian modelling, oil spill
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Energy
Objective Group:Mining and extraction of energy resources
Objective Field:Oil and gas extraction
UTAS Author:Arzaghi, E (Dr Ehsan Arzaghi)
UTAS Author:Abaei, MM (Mr Mohammad Abaei)
UTAS Author:Garaniya, V (Associate Professor Vikram Garaniya)
UTAS Author:Binns, J (Professor Jonathan Binns)
UTAS Author:Chin, C (Dr Chris Chin)
UTAS Author:Khan, FI (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:127294
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:28
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2018-07-20
Last Modified:2018-11-26

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