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Distinct child-to-adult body mass index trajectories are associated with different levels of adult cardiometabolic risk


Buscot, M-J and Thomson, RJ and Juonala, M and Sabin, MA and Burgner, DP and Lehtimaki, T and Hutri-Kahonen, N and Viikari, JSA and Raitakari, OT and Magnussen, CG, Distinct child-to-adult body mass index trajectories are associated with different levels of adult cardiometabolic risk, European Heart Journal, 39, (24) pp. 2263-2270. ISSN 0195-668X (2018) [Refereed Article]


Copyright Statement

Copyright 2018 The Authors. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in European Heart Journal following peer review. The version of record is available online at:

DOI: doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehy161


Aims: The relationship between life-course body mass index (BMI) trajectories and adult risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is poorly described. In a longitudinal cohort, we describe BMI trajectories from early childhood to adulthood and investigate their association with CVD risk factors [Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), high-risk lipid levels, hypertension, and high carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT)] in adulthood (34-49 years).

Methods and results: Six discrete long-term BMI trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modelling among 2631 Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study participants (6-49 years): stable normal (55.2%), resolving (1.6%), progressively overweight (33.4%), progressively obese (4.2%), rapidly overweight/obese (4.3%), and persistent increasing overweight/obese (1.2%). Trajectories of worsening or persisting obesity were generally associated with increased risk of CVD outcomes in adulthood (24-49 years) [all risk ratios (RRs) >15, P < 0.05 compared with the stable normal group]. Although residual risk for adult T2DM could not be confirmed [RR = 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.14-8.23], participants who resolved their elevated child BMI had similar risk for dyslipidaemia and hypertension as those never obese or overweight (all RRs close to 1). However, they had significantly higher risk for increased cIMT (RR = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.80-6.39).

Conclusion: The long-term BMI trajectories that reach or persist at high levels associate with CVD risk factors in adulthood. Stabilizing BMI in obese adults and resolving elevated child BMI by adulthood might limit and reduce adverse cardiometabolic profiles. However, efforts to prevent child obesity might be most effective to reduce the risk for adult atherosclerosis.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:cardiovascular risk, BMI, long-term trajectories, obesity, childhood to adulthood
Research Division:Health Sciences
Research Group:Epidemiology
Research Field:Epidemiology not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Clinical health
Objective Field:Clinical health not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Buscot, M-J (Dr Marie-Jeanne Buscot)
UTAS Author:Magnussen, CG (Associate Professor Costan Magnussen)
ID Code:125869
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:88
Deposited By:Menzies Institute for Medical Research
Deposited On:2018-05-10
Last Modified:2022-07-05
Downloads:16 View Download Statistics

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