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A flexible hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique for risk analysis of major accidents
Citation
Yu, H and Khan, F and Veitch, B, A flexible hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique for risk analysis of major accidents, Risk Analysis, 37, (9) pp. 1668-1682. ISSN 0272-4332 (2017) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2017 Society for Risk Analysis
Abstract
Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | event tree, fault tree, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, major accidents, probabilistic risk analysis |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Engineering practice and education |
Research Field: | Risk engineering |
Objective Division: | Expanding Knowledge |
Objective Group: | Expanding knowledge |
Objective Field: | Expanding knowledge in engineering |
UTAS Author: | Yu, H (Mr Hongjiang Yu) |
UTAS Author: | Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan) |
ID Code: | 125800 |
Year Published: | 2017 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 37 |
Deposited By: | NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics |
Deposited On: | 2018-05-07 |
Last Modified: | 2018-08-22 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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