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A flexible hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique for risk analysis of major accidents


Yu, H and Khan, F and Veitch, B, A flexible hierarchical Bayesian modeling technique for risk analysis of major accidents, Risk Analysis, 37, (9) pp. 1668-1682. ISSN 0272-4332 (2017) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2017 Society for Risk Analysis

DOI: doi:10.1111/risa.12736


Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:event tree, fault tree, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, major accidents, probabilistic risk analysis
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Engineering practice and education
Research Field:Risk engineering
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in engineering
UTAS Author:Yu, H (Mr Hongjiang Yu)
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:125800
Year Published:2017
Web of Science® Times Cited:37
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2018-05-07
Last Modified:2018-08-22

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