fmars-04-00413 (1).pdf (1.63 MB)
Projecting marine mammal distribution in a changing climate
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 17:52 authored by Silber, GK, Lettrich, MD, Thomas, PO, Baker, JD, Baumgartner, M, Becker, EA, Boveng, P, Dick, DM, Fiechter, J, Forcada, J, Forney, KA, Griffis, RB, Hare, JA, Hobday, AJ, Howell, D, Laidre, KL, Mantua, N, Quackenbush, L, Santora, JA, Stafford, KM, Spencer, P, Stock, C, Sydeman, W, Van Houten, K, Waples, RSClimate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations.
History
Publication title
Frontiers in Marine ScienceVolume
4Article number
413Number
413Pagination
1-14ISSN
2296-7745Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Frontiers Research FoundationPlace of publication
SwitzerlandRights statement
Copyright 2017 Silber, Lettrich, Thomas, Baker, Baumgartner, Becker, Boveng Dick, Fiechter, Forcada, Forney, Griffis, Hare, Hobday, Howell, Laidre, Mantua, Quakenbush, Santora, Stafford, Spencer, Stock Sydeman, Van Houtan and Waples. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Repository Status
- Open