University of Tasmania
Browse
fmars-04-00413 (1).pdf (1.63 MB)

Projecting marine mammal distribution in a changing climate

Download (1.63 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 17:52 authored by Silber, GK, Lettrich, MD, Thomas, PO, Baker, JD, Baumgartner, M, Becker, EA, Boveng, P, Dick, DM, Fiechter, J, Forcada, J, Forney, KA, Griffis, RB, Hare, JA, Hobday, AJ, Howell, D, Laidre, KL, Mantua, N, Quackenbush, L, Santora, JA, Stafford, KM, Spencer, P, Stock, C, Sydeman, W, Van Houten, K, Waples, RS
Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations.

History

Publication title

Frontiers in Marine Science

Volume

4

Article number

413

Number

413

Pagination

1-14

ISSN

2296-7745

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

Frontiers Research Foundation

Place of publication

Switzerland

Rights statement

Copyright 2017 Silber, Lettrich, Thomas, Baker, Baumgartner, Becker, Boveng Dick, Fiechter, Forcada, Forney, Griffis, Hare, Hobday, Howell, Laidre, Mantua, Quakenbush, Santora, Stafford, Spencer, Stock Sydeman, Van Houtan and Waples. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Understanding climate change not elsewhere classified

Usage metrics

    University Of Tasmania

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC