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Marine transportation risk assessment using Bayesian Network: application to Arctic waters


Baksh, M and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Khan, F, Marine transportation risk assessment using Bayesian Network: application to Arctic waters, Ocean Engineering, 159 pp. 422-436. ISSN 0029-8018 (2018) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Official URL:

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.04.024


Maritime transportation poses risks regarding possible accidents resulting in damage to vessels, crew members and to the ecosystem. The safe navigation of ships, especially in the Arctic waters, is a growing concern to maritime authorities. This study proposes a new risk model applicable to the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to investigate the possibility of marine accidents such as collision, foundering and grounding. The model is developed using Bayesian Network (BN). The proposed risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. Historical data and expert judgments are used to estimate the base value (prior values) of various operational and environmental factors. The application of the model is demonstrated through a case study of an oil-tanker navigating the NSR. The case study confirms the highest collision, foundering and grounding probabilities in the East Siberian Sea. However, foundering probabilities are very low in all five regions. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of accidental events is identified. The model suggests ice effect as a dominant factor in accident causation. The case study illustrates the priority of the model in investigating the operational risk of accidents. The estimated risk provides early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to enhance the overall safety of shipping operations.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:marine accident, Arctic water, accident modelling, Bayesian network, Arctic transportation, Northern Sea Route
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Environmental engineering
Research Field:Air pollution modelling and control
Objective Division:Mineral Resources (Excl. Energy Resources)
Objective Group:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities
Objective Field:Environmentally sustainable mineral resource activities not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Baksh, M (Dr Md. Al-Amin Baksh)
UTAS Author:Garaniya, V (Associate Professor Vikram Garaniya)
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:125769
Year Published:2018
Web of Science® Times Cited:109
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2018-05-03
Last Modified:2019-03-12

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