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The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?
Citation
Pickering, J and McGee, JS and Stephens, T and Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S, The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?, Climate Policy, 18, (7) pp. 818-827. ISSN 1469-3062 (2018) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
DOI: doi:10.1080/14693062.2017.1412934
Abstract
The United States’ decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement (pending possible re-engagement under different terms) may have significant ramifications for international climate policy, but the implications of this decision remain contested. This commentary illustrates how comparative analysis of US participation in multilateral environmental agreements can inform predictions and future assessments of the decision. We compare and contrast US non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, focusing on four key areas that may condition the influence of US treaty decisions on international climate policy: (i) global momentum on climate change mitigation; (ii) the possibility of US non-participation giving rise to alternative forms of international collaboration on climate policy; (iii) the timing and circumstances of the US decision to exit; and (iv) the influence of treaty design on countries’ incentives to participate and comply. We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | climate change, Paris Agreement, US withdrawal |
Research Division: | Law and Legal Studies |
Research Group: | Environmental and resources law |
Research Field: | Environmental law |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Mitigation of climate change |
Objective Field: | Climate change mitigation strategies |
UTAS Author: | McGee, JS (Associate Professor Jeffrey McGee) |
ID Code: | 124694 |
Year Published: | 2018 (online first 2017) |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 24 |
Deposited By: | Office of the Faculty of Law |
Deposited On: | 2018-03-05 |
Last Modified: | 2018-11-29 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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