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Long-term disability trajectories in primary progressive MS patients: A latent class growth analysis
Objectives: To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time.
Methods: All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics.
Results: A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5-5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n = 143; 16.8%), moderate (n = 378; 44.3%), or severe (n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively.
Conclusion: Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis.
History
Publication title
Multiple Sclerosis JournalVolume
24Issue
5Pagination
642-652ISSN
1352-4585Department/School
Menzies Institute for Medical ResearchPublisher
ArnoldPlace of publication
Hodder Headline Plc, 338 Euston Road, London, England, Nw1 3BhRights statement
Copyright 2017 the authorsRepository Status
- Restricted