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An improved dynamic linear forecasting model for container port throughput considering periodic fluctuations
Citation
Su, W and Zhang, J and Zhang, W and Fei, J, An improved dynamic linear forecasting model for container port throughput considering periodic fluctuations, Proceedings of the International Conference of Maritime Economics (IAME) 2017, 27-30 June 2017, Kyoto, Japan, pp. 1 - 17. (2017) [Refereed Conference Paper]
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Official URL: http://web.apollon.nta.co.jp/iame2017/index.html
Abstract
In order to improve the forecasting accuracy of container port throughput, an improved dynamic linear model is developed considering all periodic fluctuation factors such as seasonal changes and weather impact. Bayesian estimation and prediction is used to solve the improved model in this research. An empirical analysis of the Nanjing container port throughput is carried out to compare the forecasting effectiveness and accuracy of two models, i.e. the linear growth model and the improved dynamic linear model. Empirical results indicate that comparing with the linear growth model, forecasting results from the improved model are more in line with the actual container throughput. As such, the improved dynamic linear model has better forecasting performance in container throughput of Nanjing Port than that of the general linear growth model. It suggests that the improved dynamic linear model can be used in container throughput forecasting in practice. It also provides references for maritime and port authorities and decision makers to develop proper strategic planning based on more accurate container throughput forecasting.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | container throughput, periodic fluctuations, improved dynamic linear model, Bayesian estimate |
| Research Division: | Economics |
| Research Group: | Other Economics |
| Research Field: | Economics not elsewhere classified |
| Objective Division: | Transport |
| Objective Group: | Water Transport |
| Objective Field: | International Sea Freight Transport (excl. Live Animal Transport) |
| Author: | Zhang, W (Dr Vera Zhang) |
| Author: | Fei, J (Dr Jiangang Fei) |
| ID Code: | 121019 |
| Year Published: | 2017 |
| Deposited By: | Maritime and Logistics Management |
| Deposited On: | 2017-09-06 |
| Last Modified: | 2018-04-17 |
| Downloads: | 0 |
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