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Safety analysis of a new and innovative transhipping concept: a comparison of two Bayesian network models

Citation

Clarke, L and MacFarlane, G and Penesis, I and Duffy, J and Matsubara, S and Ballantyne, R, Safety analysis of a new and innovative transhipping concept: a comparison of two Bayesian network models, Marine Navigation: Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation (TransNav 2017), 21-23 June 2017, Gdynia, Poland, pp. 347-354. ISBN 978-1-138-29768-5 (2017) [Refereed Conference Paper]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2017 Taylor & Francis

DOI: doi:10.1201/9781315099088-61

Abstract

The floating harbour transhipper (FHT) is a new and innovative concept designed to improve the efficiency of bulk commodity export. As with all new and untested maritime systems, a rigorous safety analysis is essential prior to the operationís launch. Sophisticated tools, such as Bayesian networks, are increasingly being adopted for safety analysis in the maritime industry. Bayesian networks have predominately been used to replace fault trees due to their flexibility and improved handling of uncertainty. However, when applied to complex socio-technical systems Bayesian networks, as currently used, inherit many of the same shortcomings as traditional risk-based methodologies. These limitations are not indicative of the methods potential. This paper compares the traditional approach for developing Bayesian networks with an approach based on a foundation of resilience engineering. Both models were applied to an aspect of manoeuvring during the FHTís operation. The resilience-based approach successfully developed a representative network. The two approaches led to vastly different models, both in terms of structure and parameters. However, the descriptive approach of resilience-based model produced more proactive safety recommendations and, unlike the traditional model, serves as a knowledge base for future investigation.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Keywords:Bayesian networks, FHT, transhipping, resilience
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime Engineering
Research Field:Ship and Platform Hydrodynamics
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water Transport
Objective Field:International Sea Freight Transport (excl. Live Animal Transport)
Author:Clarke, L (Mr Lauchlan Clarke)
Author:MacFarlane, G (Associate Professor Gregor MacFarlane)
Author:Penesis, I (Associate Professor Irene Penesis)
Author:Duffy, J (Dr Jonathan Duffy)
Author:Matsubara, S (Dr Shinsuke Matsubara)
ID Code:120929
Year Published:2017
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2017-09-04
Last Modified:2018-04-19
Downloads:0

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