Quantitative Assessment of Risk Caused by Domino Accidents

The complexity of domino scenarios represented a considerable obstacle to the quantitative assessment of risk posed by escalation events. In the present chapter, the state of the art concerning quantitative approaches proposed for the assessment of risk caused by domino accidents is summarized. A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of domino accidents, suitable for the calculation of individual and societal risk indexes, is outlined. Alternative approaches proposed for the quantitative assessment of domino effects, based on Bayesian techniques and Monte Carlo simulations, are also described.