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A risk-based availability estimation using Markov method


Ahmed, Q and Khan, FI and Raza, SA, A risk-based availability estimation using Markov method, International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, 31, (2) pp. 106-128. ISSN 0265-671X (2014) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2014 Emerald Group Publishing Limited

DOI: doi:10.1108/IJQRM-04-2012-0056


Purpose: Asset intensive process industries are under immense pressure to achieve promised return on investments and production targets. This can be accomplished by ensuring the highest level of availability, reliability and utilization of the critical equipment in processing facilities. In order to achieve designed availability, asset characterization and maintainability play a vital role. The most appropriate and effective way to characterize the assets in a processing facility is based on risk and consequence of failure. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach: In this research, a risk-based stochastic modeling approach using a Markov decision process is investigated to assess a processing unit's availability, which is referred as the risk-based availability Markov model (RBAMM). RBAMM will not only provide a realistic and effective way to identify critical assets in a plant but also a method to estimate availability for efficient planning purposes and resource optimization.

Findings: A unique risk matrix and methodology is proposed to determine the critical equipment with direct impact on the availability, reliability and safety of the process. A functional block diagram is then developed using critical equipment to perform efficient modeling. A Markov process is utilized to establish state diagrams and create steady-state equations to calculate the availability of the process. RBAMM is applied to natural gas absorption process to validate the proposed methodology. In the conclusion, other benefits and limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed.

Originality/value: A new risk-based methodology integrated with Markov model application of the methodology is demonstrated using a real-life application.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:availability, maintainability, Markov decision process, risk assessment, risk assessment matrix, risk-based availability Markov model
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Engineering practice and education
Research Field:Risk engineering
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in engineering
UTAS Author:Khan, FI (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:120715
Year Published:2014
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2017-08-30
Last Modified:2018-04-11

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