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Accident modelling and analysis in process industries


Al-shanini, A and Ahmad, A and Khan, FI, Accident modelling and analysis in process industries, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 32 pp. 319-334. ISSN 0950-4230 (2014) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2014.09.016


Accident modelling is a methodology used to relate the causes and effects of events that lead to accidents. This modelling effectively seeks to answer two main questions: (i) Why does an accident occur, and (ii) How does it occur. This paper presents a review of accident models that have been developed for the chemical process industry with in-depth analyses of a class of models known as dynamic sequential accident models (DSAMs). DSAMs are sequential models with a systematic procedure to utilise precursor data to estimate the posterior risk profile quantitatively. DSAM also offers updates on the failure probabilities of accident barriers and the prediction of future end states. Following a close scrutiny of these methodologies, several limitations are noted and discussed, and based on these insights, future work is suggested to enhance and improve this category of models further.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:accident modelling, dynamic risk assessment, dynamic sequential accident models, precursor data, accident models, dynamic risk assessments, in-process, modelling and analysis, precursor data
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Engineering practice and education
Research Field:Risk engineering
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in engineering
UTAS Author:Khan, FI (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:120700
Year Published:2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:53
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2017-08-30
Last Modified:2017-11-03

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