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Loss scenario analysis and loss aggregation for process facilities


Hashemi, SJ and Ahmed, S and Khan, FI, Loss scenario analysis and loss aggregation for process facilities, Chemical Engineering Science, 128 pp. 119-129. ISSN 0009-2509 (2015) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.ces.2015.01.061


This study presents an overall loss modelling methodology for process facilities. The methodology comprises loss scenario identification and aggregation of losses due to process deviations. The identification of loss scenarios and determination of the time periods at which a process experiences each scenario are described first. Then, the application of the copula functions and their integration with the Monte Carlo (MC) approach are proposed to address the existing challenge of loss aggregation for multiple-loss scenarios. The proposed loss aggregation provides a flexible and realistic approach to construct joint multivariate distribution of the losses by considering their interdependence. The sensitivity of the model to the choice of correlation parameters is investigated. The results serve as a reminder to risk analysts about the significance of choosing an appropriate loss aggregation model for risk analysis purposes. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using a distillation column case study.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:copula function, distillation column flooding, loss aggregation, loss modeling, distillation, risk analysis, risk assessment, copula functions, correlation parameters, loss model, modelling methodology, multivariate distributions, process deviations
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Chemical engineering
Research Field:Process control and simulation
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in engineering
UTAS Author:Khan, FI (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:120608
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:23
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2017-08-29
Last Modified:2017-11-03

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