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A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment

Citation

Denholm, L and Beeton, NJ and Forbes, LK and Carver, S, A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment, Letters in Biomathmatics, 4, (1) pp. 187-206. ISSN 2373-7867 (2017) [Refereed Article]


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DOI: doi:10.1080/23737867.2017.1359697

Abstract

Ross River Disease is a mosquito-borne viral condition that affects pockets of the Australian human population, and can be debilitating in some instances. The evidence is that the virus reservoirs in marsupials, such as kangaroos, and this may account for the unpredictable outbreaks of the disease in humans. Accordingly, we present here a new model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus (RRV) in populations of mosquitoes and kangaroos. We calculate steady-state populations for the sub-groups in each species and demonstrate that naturally occurring oscillations in the populations (limit cycles) do not occur. When seasonal forcing of vector populations and kangaroo birth rates is taken into account, however, the model may predict multi-annual outbreaks and chaos, perhaps explaining the unpredictability of some RRV disease epidemics, particularly across southern Australia. Detailed results in this case are presented.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Ross River Virus;mosquitoes; kangaroos; frequency dependence; seasonal forcing; chaos
Research Division:Mathematical Sciences
Research Group:Applied Mathematics
Research Field:Biological Mathematics
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species
Objective Field:Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species at Regional or Larger Scales
Author:Denholm, L (Mr Luke Denholm)
Author:Beeton, NJ (Dr Nicholas Beeton)
Author:Forbes, LK (Professor Larry Forbes)
Author:Carver, S (Dr Scott Carver)
ID Code:120090
Year Published:2017
Deposited By:Zoology
Deposited On:2017-08-09
Last Modified:2017-08-10
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