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Ross River Disease is a mosquito-borne viral condition that affects pockets of the Australian human population, and can be debilitating in some instances. The evidence is that the virus reservoirs in marsupials, such as kangaroos, and this may account for the unpredictable outbreaks of the disease in humans. Accordingly, we present here a new model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus (RRV) in populations of mosquitoes and kangaroos. We calculate steady-state populations for the sub-groups in each species and demonstrate that naturally occurring oscillations in the populations (limit cycles) do not occur. When seasonal forcing of vector populations and kangaroo birth rates is taken into account, however, the model may predict multi-annual outbreaks and chaos, perhaps explaining the unpredictability of some RRV disease epidemics, particularly across southern Australia. Detailed results in this case are presented.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	Ross River Virus, mosquitoes, kangaroos, frequency dependence, seasonal forcing, chaos
Research Division:	Mathematical Sciences
Research Group:	Applied mathematics
Research Field:	Biological mathematics
Objective Division:	Environmental Management
Objective Group:	Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:	Control of pests, diseases and exotic species in terrestrial environments
UTAS Author:	Denholm, L (Mr Luke Denholm)
UTAS Author:	Beeton, NJ (Dr Nicholas Beeton)
UTAS Author:	Forbes, LK (Professor Larry Forbes)
UTAS Author:	Carver, S (Associate Professor Scott Carver)
ID Code:	120090
Year Published:	2017
Deposited By:	Zoology
Deposited On:	2017-08-09
Last Modified:	2018-05-08
Downloads:	120 View Download Statistics