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Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management


Hobday, AJ and Hartog, JR and Spillman, CM and Alves, O, Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 68, (5) pp. 898-911. ISSN 0706-652X (2011) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

The Authors. Copyright 2017 Canadian Science Publishing

DOI: doi:10.1139/f2011-031


Capture of the target, bycatch, and protected species in fisheries is often regulated through spatial measures that partition fishing effort, including areal closures. In eastern Australian waters, southern bluefin tuna (SBT, Thunnus maccoyii) are a quota-limited species in a multispecies longline fishery; minimizing capture by nonquota holders is an important management concern. A habitat preference model (conditioned with electronic tag data) coupled with ocean reanalysis data has been used since 2003 to generate real-time predicted maps of SBT distribution (nowcasts). These maps are used by fishery managers to restrict fisher access to areas with high predicted SBT distribution. Here we use the coupled ocean-atmosphere model, POAMA (predictive ocean atmosphere model for Australia), and a habitat model to forecast SBT distribution at lead times of up to 4 months. These forecasts are comparable with nowcasts derived from the operational system, and show skill in predicting SBT habitat boundaries out to lead-times of 3-4 months. For this fishery, seasonal forecasts can provide managers and fishers with valuable insights into future habitat distributions for the upcoming months, to better inform operational decisions.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:atmospheric modeling, bycatch, capture method, data set, fishery management
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Fisheries sciences
Research Field:Aquaculture and fisheries stock assessment
Objective Division:Animal Production and Animal Primary Products
Objective Group:Fisheries - wild caught
Objective Field:Fisheries - wild caught not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Hobday, AJ (Dr Alistair Hobday)
ID Code:119846
Year Published:2011
Web of Science® Times Cited:99
Deposited By:Fisheries and Aquaculture
Deposited On:2017-08-07
Last Modified:2017-09-22

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