Using dynamical seasonal forecasts in marine management
Spillman, CM and Alves, O and Hudson, DA and Hobday, AJ and Hartog, JR, Using dynamical seasonal forecasts in marine management, SUSTAINING OUR FUTURE: understanding and living with uncertainty, 12-16 December 2011, Perth, Western Australia, pp. 2163-21669. ISBN 978-098721431-7 (2011) [Refereed Conference Paper]
Copyright 2011 The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.
Seasonal forecasting has great scope for use in marine applications, particularly those with a management focus. Seasonal forecasts from dynamical ocean-atmosphere models of high risk conditions in marine ecosystems can be very useful tools for managers, allowing for proactive management responses on a range of timescales. Applications include coral bleaching risk predictions and forecasts of ocean conditions driving fisheries. Real-time forecasts for coral bleaching risk on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are currently produced operationally using the Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal forecast model POAMA. These forecasts provide an early warning of potential bleaching risk prior to summer, which allows reef managers to both focus monitoring programs and implement strategies to minimise bleaching damage, as well as brief stakeholders. Additionally, probabilistic forecasts provide information as to the likelihood of a bleaching event occurring, which is very useful for management in planning responses and focusing resources. A second example is the management of the multi-species long-line fishery on the east coast of Australia. Forecasts of ocean temperature from POAMA are used in a statistical tuna habitat model to produce experimental habitat maps for the Australian Marine and Fisheries Authority for use in setting management zones. Seasonal forecasts are also being used to predict ocean conditions for salmon aquaculture farms around Tasmania, with information used by managers to coordinate activities to manage farm health. Probabilistic forecast products for these fisheries are currently under development in consultation with the industry with the aim to produce useful and easily understood management tools.