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Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 08:57 authored by Lewandowsky, S, James RisbeyJames Risbey, Smithson, M, Newell, BRIn public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.
History
Publication title
Climatic ChangeVolume
124Issue
1-2Pagination
39-52ISSN
0165-0009Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Kluwer Academic PublPlace of publication
Van Godewijckstraat 30, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 3311 GzRights statement
Copyright 2014 Springer Science+Business Media DordrechtRepository Status
- Restricted