eCite Digital Repository

Untangling the model muddle: Empirical tumour growth in Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease


Hamede, RK and Beeton, NJ and Carver, S and Jones, ME, Untangling the model muddle: Empirical tumour growth in Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease, Scientific Reports, 7 Article 6217. ISSN 2045-2322 (2017) [Refereed Article]


Copyright Statement

Copyright 2017 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

DOI: doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06166-3


A pressing and unresolved topic in cancer research is how tumours grow in the absence of treatment. Despite advances in cancer biology, therapeutic and diagnostic technologies, there is limited knowledge regarding the fundamental growth and developmental patterns in solid tumours. In this ten year study, we estimated growth curves in Tasmanian devil facial tumours, a clonal transmissible cancer, in males and females with two different karyotypes (diploid, tetraploid) and facial locations (mucosal, dermal), using established differential equation models and model selection. Logistic growth was the most parsimonious model for diploid, tetraploid and mucosal tumours, with less model certainty for dermal tumours. Estimates of daily proportional tumour growth rate per day (95% Bayesian CIs) varied with ploidy and location [diploid 0.016 (0.0140.020), tetraploid 0.026 (0.0200.033), mucosal 0.013 (0.0110.015), dermal 0.020 (0.0160.024)]. Final tumour size (cm3) also varied, particularly the upper credible interval owing to host mortality as tumours approached maximum volume [diploid 364 (1362,475), tetraploid 172 (100305), dermal 226 (134471)]. To our knowledge, these are the first empirical estimates of tumour growth in the absence of treatment in a wild population. Through this animal-cancer system our findings may enhance understanding of how tumour properties interact with growth dynamics in other types of cancer.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:cancer, epidemiology, disease ecology, Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease, Tasmanian devil
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Evolutionary biology
Research Field:Host-parasite interactions
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:Control of pests, diseases and exotic species in terrestrial environments
UTAS Author:Hamede, RK (Dr Rodrigo Hamede Ross)
UTAS Author:Beeton, NJ (Dr Nicholas Beeton)
UTAS Author:Carver, S (Associate Professor Scott Carver)
UTAS Author:Jones, ME (Professor Menna Jones)
ID Code:119439
Year Published:2017
Web of Science® Times Cited:5
Deposited By:Plant Science
Deposited On:2017-08-01
Last Modified:2018-05-07
Downloads:142 View Download Statistics

Repository Staff Only: item control page