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Synoptic components of rainfall variability and trends in southeast Australia

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 08:39 authored by Risby, JS, McIntosh, PC, Pook, MJ
This work examines the contributions of different synoptic types to rainfall variability and trends in southeast Australia, with a focus on the drought of 1996–2009. Rainfall in the Mallee region is used to characterize the southeast region. The reduction in rainfall in the Mallee region during the drought is about two-thirds composed of a reduction in rainfall from cutoff lows and about one-third due to a reduction in rainfall from frontal systems. The reduction in frontal rain is mostly due to a reduction in rain per frontal system, which is associated with a reduction of baroclinicity in the southeast and south of Australia. The reduction of cutoff rainfall is mostly due to a reduction in number of the most intense cutoff systems. The frequency of cutoff systems matches changes in blocking activity in the Tasman Sea region. Blocking has undergone a weak decline in the Tasman region over the period of the drought. Analysis of synoptic system contributions to the drought indicates that causal explanations of the drought should account for variation in cutoff systems and blocking.

History

Publication title

International Journal of Climatology

Volume

33

Issue

11

Pagination

2459-2472

ISSN

0899-8418

Department/School

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Place of publication

The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, England, W Sussex, Po19 8Sq

Rights statement

Copyright 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts)

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