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Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales


Jung, T and Gordon, ND and Bauer, P and Bromwich, DH and Chevallier, M and Day, JJ and Dawson, J and Doblas-Reyes, F and Fairall, C and Goessling, HF and Holland, M and Inoue, J and Iversen, T and Klebe, S and Lemke, P and Losch, M and Makshtas, A and Mills, B and Nurmi, P and Perovich, D and Reid, PA and Renfrew, IA and Smith, G and Svensson, G and Tolstykh, M and Yang, Q, Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales, American Meteorological Society. Bulletin, 97, (9) pp. 1631-1647. ISSN 0003-0007 (2016) [Refereed Article]


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DOI: doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00246.1


The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar–lower-latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting communites will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modeling, prediction, verification, user engagement, and educational activities.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:polar prediction, polar regions
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Atmospheric sciences
Research Field:Meteorology
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in the environmental sciences
UTAS Author:Reid, PA (Dr Phillip Reid)
ID Code:118833
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:160
Deposited By:CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems
Deposited On:2017-07-20
Last Modified:2017-08-09
Downloads:159 View Download Statistics

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