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Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters


Abbassi, R and Khan, F and Khakzad, N and Veitch, B and Ehlers, S, Risk analysis of offshore transportation accident in arctic waters, International Journal of Maritime Engineering, 159, (A3) pp. A213-A224. ISSN 1479-8751 (2017) [Refereed Article]

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2017: The Royal Institution of Naval Architects

DOI: doi:10.3940/rina.2017.a3.351


A methodology for risk analysis applicable to shipping in arctic waters is introduced. This methodology uses the Bowtie relationship to represent an accident causes and consequences. It is further used to quantify the probability of a ship accident and also the related accident consequences during navigation in arctic waters. Detailed fault trees for three possible ship accident scenarios in arctic transits are developed and represented as bowties. Factors related to cold and harsh conditions and their effects on grounding, foundering, and collision are considered as part of this study. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker navigating on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The methodology is implemented in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework to assess the uncertainties arisen from historical data and expert judgments involved in the risk analysis.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:risk analysis, Arctic water
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Maritime engineering
Research Field:Ocean engineering
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water transport
Objective Field:Water safety
UTAS Author:Abbassi, R (Dr Rouzbeh Abbassi)
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
UTAS Author:Veitch, B (Mr Brendan Veitch)
ID Code:118784
Year Published:2017
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2017-07-20
Last Modified:2018-04-19
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