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Metastability of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection modes


Risbey, JS and O'Kane, TJ and Monselesan, DP and Franzke, C and Horenko, I, Metastability of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection modes, Journal of The Atmospheric Sciences, 72, (1) pp. 35-54. ISSN 0022-4928 (2015) [Refereed Article]

DOI: doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0020.1


This study applies a finite-element, bounded-variation, vector autoregressive method to assess midtropospheric flow regimes characterized by regime switches between metastable states. The flow is assessed in reanalysis data from three different reanalysis sets assimilating surface data only; surface and upper-air data; and ocean, surface, and upper-air data. Results are generally consistent across the reanalyses and confirm the utility of surface-only reanalyses for capturing midtropospheric variability. The method is applied to a set of regional domains in the Northern Hemisphere and for the full-hemispheric domain. Composites of the metastable states for each region yield structures that are consistent with the well-documented teleconnection modes: the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific–North America pattern (PNA) in the Pacific Ocean, and Scandinavian blocking over Eurasia. The PNA mode includes a clear waveguide structure in midlatitudes. The Northern Hemisphere domain yields a state composite that reflects aspects of an annular mode (Arctic Oscillation), where the annular component in midlatitudes comprises a circumglobal waveguide. The Northern Hemisphere waveguide is characterized by wavenumber 5. Some of the nodes in this circumglobal waveguide manifest as part of regional dipole structures like the PNA. This situation contrasts with the Southern Hemisphere, where the circumglobal waveguide exhibits wavenumbers 3 and 5 and is monopolar. For each of the regions and modes examined, the annual time series of residence percent in each state displays prominent decadal variability and provides a clear means of identifying regimes of the major teleconnection modes.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:annular mode, atmospheric circulation, climate classification/regimes, climate variability, time series, decadal variability
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Atmospheric sciences
Research Field:Atmospheric dynamics
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Air quality, atmosphere and weather
Objective Field:Atmospheric processes and dynamics
UTAS Author:Risbey, JS (Dr James Risbey)
UTAS Author:O'Kane, TJ (Dr Terry O'Kane)
ID Code:118551
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:24
Deposited By:Directorate
Deposited On:2017-07-13
Last Modified:2017-07-13

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