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False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment
Citation
Parker, WS and Risbey, JS, False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373, (2055) Article 20140453. ISSN 1364-503X (2015) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
2015 The Author(s)
DOI: doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0453
Abstract
An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection that it is impossible to account for the risk of genuine surprises. After outlining some steps that both scientists and the bodies who commission uncertainty assessments can take to help avoid these pitfalls, we explain why striving for faithfulness and completeness is important.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | uncertainty, surprise, climate change, models, probability, unknown unknowns |
Research Division: | Human Society |
Research Group: | Sociology |
Research Field: | Sociology and social studies of science and technology |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Adaptation to climate change |
Objective Field: | Social impacts of climate change and variability |
UTAS Author: | Risbey, JS (Dr James Risbey) |
ID Code: | 118538 |
Year Published: | 2015 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 22 |
Deposited By: | Directorate |
Deposited On: | 2017-07-13 |
Last Modified: | 2017-08-28 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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