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False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment
An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection that it is impossible to account for the risk of genuine surprises. After outlining some steps that both scientists and the bodies who commission uncertainty assessments can take to help avoid these pitfalls, we explain why striving for faithfulness and completeness is important.
History
Publication title
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. Mathematical, Physical and Engineering SciencesVolume
373Issue
2055Article number
20140453Number
20140453Pagination
1-13ISSN
1364-503XDepartment/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Royal Soc LondonPlace of publication
6 Carlton House Terrace, London, England, Sw1Y 5AgRights statement
2015 The Author(s)Repository Status
- Restricted