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Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model
Citation
McIntosh, PC and Church, JA and Miles, ER and Ridgway, K and Spillman, CM, Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, (16) pp. 6747-6753. ISSN 0094-8276 (2015) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2015 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Abstract
Sea level varies on a range of time scales from tidal to decadal and centennial change. To date, little attention has been focussed on the prediction of interannual sea level anomalies. Here we demonstrate that forecasts of coastal sea level anomalies from the dynamical Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) have significant skill throughout the equatorial Pacific and along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Indian Oceans at lead times out to 8 months. POAMA forecasts for the western Pacific generally have greater skill than persistence, particularly at longer lead times. POAMA also has comparable or greater skill than previously published statistical forecasts from both a Markov model and canonical correlation analysis. Our results indicate the capability of physically based models to address the challenge of providing skillful forecasts of seasonal sea level fluctuations for coastal communities over a broad area and at a range of lead times.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | sea level, seasonal, coastal sea level, modelling, Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, POAMA, coastal sea level fluctuation |
| Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
| Research Group: | Oceanography |
| Research Field: | Physical oceanography |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
| Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
| Objective Field: | Climate change models |
| UTAS Author: | McIntosh, PC (Dr Peter McIntosh) |
| UTAS Author: | Church, JA (Dr John Church) |
| ID Code: | 118536 |
| Year Published: | 2015 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 12 |
| Deposited By: | Directorate |
| Deposited On: | 2017-07-13 |
| Last Modified: | 2017-10-16 |
| Downloads: | 117 View Download Statistics |
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