What's the problem in adaptation pathways planning? The potential of a diagnostic problem-structuring approach

Adaptation Pathways (AP) is receiving increased theoretical and practical interest as an approach to planning for climate change that engages with conditions of uncertainty. Participatory action research with environmental and natural resource management (NRM) planners, revealed that the contested, complex nature of NRM challenges the ready utility of AP planning implied by many other published examples. Findings indicate this is because current AP approaches do not yet engage with contested goals and knowledge, and tend to assume that actions to achieve goals are largely technical and unproblematic. Drawing on these findings, this paper develops an argument for a diagnostic, problem-structuring approach as one way of improving the utility of AP planning in contested, complex problems. We posit this approach could help guide selection of 'fit-for-problem' analysis and planning methods to develop practicable AP plans that support efforts towards transformational adaptation. Issues of engaging with diverse problem frames, scientific contestations, and institutional dimensions of governance remain potentially fruitful research foci in AP planning.