Gulf of carpentaria storm tide and inundation study
Smith, M and Harper, B and Mason, L and Schwartz, R and Acworth, C, Gulf of carpentaria storm tide and inundation study, Proceedings of Coasts and Ports 2013, 11-13 September 2013, Sydney, Australia, pp. 691-696. ISBN 9781922107053 (2013) [Refereed Conference Paper]
This study involved the statistical analysis of simulated ocean water levels (based on atmospheric, hydrodynamic and spectral wave modelling) throughout the entire Gulf of Carpentaria region, resulting in estimates of the probability of exceedance of extreme ocean water levels for over 2,500 km of open coast and detailed inundation mapping of specific community areas for emergency management. The study is predicated on knowledge of existing or immediately past climatic data and utilises projections of possible future climate change, including sea level rise and increased tropical cyclone intensity. A series of nested hydrodynamic models was used to simulate 50,000 years of tropical cyclone activity in conjunction with monsoonal influences, derived from a stochastic cyclone track model for both present and future climate conditions. These results were then statistically combined with the non-cyclonic only analysis. The study has shown that there is potential for storm tide inundation up to as high as 9 m AHD at the coastline and for inland penetration across the flat featureless coastal margins as much as 30 km. The study was undertaken for the Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts (QLD) following receipt of a Natural Disaster Mitigation Program (NDMP) grant.