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Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths - Temperature or divergence?

Citation

Allen, KJ and Cook, ER and Buckley, BM and Larsen, SH and Drew, DM and Downes, GM and Francey, RJ and Peterson, MJ and Baker, PJ, Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths - Temperature or divergence?, Quaternary Science Reviews, 102 pp. 39-53. ISSN 0277-3791 (2014) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

2014 Elsevier

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.08.003

Abstract

To date, no attempt has been made to assess the presence or otherwise of the "Divergence Problem" (DP) in existing multi-millennial Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. We have updated the iconic Mt Read Huon pine chronology from Tasmania, southeastern Australia, to now include the warmest decade on record, AD 2000-2010, and used the Kalman Filter (KF) to examine it for signs of divergence against four different temperature series available for the region. Ring-width growth for the past two decades is statistically unprecedented for the past 1048 years. Although we have identified a decoupling between temperature and growth in the past two decades, the relationship between some of the temperature records and growth has varied over time since the start of instrumental records. Rather than the special case of 'divergence', we have identified a more general time-dependence between growth and temperature over the last 100 years. This time-dependence appears particularly problematic at interdecadal time scales. Due to the time-dependent relationships, and uncertainties related to the climate data, the use of any of the individual temperature series examined here potentially complicates temperature reconstruction. Some of the uncertainty in the climate data may be associated with changing climatic conditions, such as the intensification of the sub-tropical ridge (STR) and its impact on the frequency of anticyclonic conditions over the Mt Read site. Increased growth at the site, particularly in the last decade, over and above what would be expected based on a linear temperature model alone, may be consistent with a number of hypotheses. Existing uncertainties in the climate data need to be resolved and independent physiological information obtained before a range of hypotheses for this increased growth can be effectively evaluated.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Australia, divergence, Huon pine, kalman filter, Mt Read, time-dependence
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Plant Biology
Research Field:Plant Physiology
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity
Objective Field:Mountain and High Country Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity
Author:Downes, GM (Dr Geoff Downes)
ID Code:118026
Year Published:2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:6
Deposited By:Plant Science
Deposited On:2017-06-30
Last Modified:2017-10-16
Downloads:0

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