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Developing regional scenarios enables planners to engage land managers in discussions about the future, especially in contexts that are complex, uncertain and difficult to control. Richly-crafted qualitative narratives are an effective way to document future scenarios that integrate social, economic and biophysical attributes. Converting such narratives into spatial representations of future landscapes often relies on computational modelling. This paper presents an alternative technique. Key themes from scenario narratives are translated into spatial representations using simple rule sets within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The technique was applied to a case study exploring future scenarios for biodiversity in a predominantly privately-owned agricultural landscape. Iterative analysis of scenarios and their spatial implications enables land managers to explore outcomes from potential interventions and identify strategies that might mitigate the impact of future issues of environmental concern.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	spatial planning, alternative futures, scenario visualisation, landscape change, private land conservation, Tasmanian Midlands
Research Division:	Environmental Sciences
Research Group:	Environmental management
Research Field:	Conservation and biodiversity
Objective Division:	Environmental Management
Objective Group:	Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:	Rehabilitation or conservation of terrestrial environments
UTAS Author:	Mitchell, MS (Dr Michael Mitchell)
UTAS Author:	Lockwood, M (Associate Professor Michael Lockwood)
UTAS Author:	Gilfedder, LA (Ms Louise Gilfedder)
UTAS Author:	Lefroy, EC (Professor Ted Lefroy)
ID Code:	117544
Year Published:	2017
Web of Science® Times Cited:	6
Deposited By:	Geography and Spatial Science
Deposited On:	2017-06-20
Last Modified:	2018-05-21
Downloads:	98 View Download Statistics