Investment dynamics of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean US purse seine fleet

Understanding fisher decision making in a competitive but changing market is becoming increasingly important when developing management plans for sustainable fisheries. In the Western and Central Pacific, catches of tuna by weight are dominated by the purse seine fleet. To investigate the key drivers that influence the behaviour of the US purse seine fleet operating in the complex Western Central Pacific Ocean tuna fishery, multivariate methods were applied to identify candidate predictor variables in 2 separate 7 year periods and the 14 year time series to be applied in a discrete choice multinomial model. By integrating available cost data, interest rates and other factors that were likely to influence future anticipated benefits or losses, it was possible to identify key important drivers influencing whether operators chose to enter (invest in), remain (stay and continue fishing) or exit (tie‐up for a period or remain under a different flag) the US fleet. Results show the importance of capturing the changes of the fisher dynamics over the time period. Early years show that vessel engine power was an important factor (a proxy for capital investment) in contrast to the later time period where vessel tonnage was of greater importance potentially due to fuel prices increases (cost), a drop in interest rates (financing decisions), increased revenues (net benefits) to offset the increase in costs. Fishers Willingness To Pay (WTP) estimated by the 3 models estimates increased from US$29 to US$7290 per day, which shows the perceived value placed on the fishery by fishers wanting to invest in. These models may assist fisheries managers when considering potential strategic long‐term policies for balancing licence sales, and hence revenues for pacific island nations without displacing large amounts of capacity.