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Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency


Yang, GJ and Brook, BW and Bradshaw, CJA, Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 3, (2) Article e385. ISSN 1935-2727 (2009) [Refereed Article]


Copyright Statement

Copyright 2009 Yang et al. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

DOI: doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000385


The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance (Npeak) occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in Npeak. Model weights, estimated using AICc, were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:prediction, mosquito, tropical, population peaks, control efficiency, population control
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Ecology
Research Field:Population ecology
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Other environmental management
Objective Field:Other environmental management not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Brook, BW (Professor Barry Brook)
ID Code:116186
Year Published:2009
Web of Science® Times Cited:22
Deposited By:Biological Sciences
Deposited On:2017-05-03
Last Modified:2017-08-15
Downloads:131 View Download Statistics

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