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Sensitivity analysis of range dynamics models (SARDM): Quantifying the influence of parameter uncertainty on forecasts of extinction risk from global change

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 03:55 authored by Fordham, DA, Haythorne, S, Barry BrookBarry Brook
Spatially explicit demographic models are increasingly being used to forecast the effect of global change on the range dynamics of species. These models are typically complex, with the structure and parameter values often estimated with considerable uncertainty. If not properly accounted, this can lead to bias or false precision in projections of changes to species range dynamics and extinction risk. Here we present a new open-source freeware tool, "Sensitivity Analysis of Range Dynamics Models" (SARDM) that provides an all-in-one approach for: (i) determining the implications of integrating complex and often uncertain information into spatially explicit demographic models compiled in RAMAS GIS, and (ii) identifying and ranking the relative importance of different sources of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques built into SARDM will facilitate ecologists and conservation scientists in better establishing confidence in forecasts of range movement and abundance.

History

Publication title

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volume

83

Pagination

193-197

ISSN

1364-8152

Department/School

School of Natural Sciences

Publisher

Elsevier Sci Ltd

Place of publication

The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox5 1Gb

Rights statement

Copyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Other environmental management not elsewhere classified

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