eCite Digital Repository

Sensitivity analysis of range dynamics models (SARDM): Quantifying the influence of parameter uncertainty on forecasts of extinction risk from global change

Citation

Fordham, DA and Haythorne, S and Brook, BW, Sensitivity analysis of range dynamics models (SARDM): Quantifying the influence of parameter uncertainty on forecasts of extinction risk from global change, Environmental Modelling and Software, 83 pp. 193-197. ISSN 1364-8152 (2016) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.020

Abstract

Spatially explicit demographic models are increasingly being used to forecast the effect of global change on the range dynamics of species. These models are typically complex, with the structure and parameter values often estimated with considerable uncertainty. If not properly accounted, this can lead to bias or false precision in projections of changes to species range dynamics and extinction risk. Here we present a new open-source freeware tool, "Sensitivity Analysis of Range Dynamics Models" (SARDM) that provides an all-in-one approach for: (i) determining the implications of integrating complex and often uncertain information into spatially explicit demographic models compiled in RAMAS GIS, and (ii) identifying and ranking the relative importance of different sources of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques built into SARDM will facilitate ecologists and conservation scientists in better establishing confidence in forecasts of range movement and abundance.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate change, coupled niche-population model, metapopulation, population viability analysis, propagating uncertainty, species distribution
Research Division:Mathematical Sciences
Research Group:Statistics
Research Field:Stochastic Analysis and Modelling
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Ecosystem Assessment and Management
Objective Field:Ecosystem Assessment and Management not elsewhere classified
Author:Brook, BW (Professor Barry Brook)
ID Code:115959
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:2
Deposited By:Biological Sciences
Deposited On:2017-04-21
Last Modified:2017-06-21
Downloads:0

Repository Staff Only: item control page