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Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 03:46 authored by Christopher White, Carlsen, H, Robertson, AW, Klein, RJT, Lazo, JK, Kumar, A, Vitart, F, de Perez, EC, Ray, AJ, Murray, V, Bharwani, S, MacLeod, D, James, R, Fleming, L, Morse, AP, Eggen, B, Graham, R, Kjellstrom, E, Becker, E, Pegion, KV, Neil HolbrookNeil Holbrook, McEvoy, D, Depledge, M, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S, Brown, TJ, Street, R, Jones, L, Tomas Remenyi, Indiah Hodgson-JohnstonIndiah Hodgson-Johnston, Buontempo, C, Lamb, R, Holger MeinkeHolger Meinke, Arheimer, B, Zebiak, SE
While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

Funding

University of Tasmania

History

Publication title

Meteorological Applications

Volume

24

Pagination

315-325

ISSN

1350-4827

Department/School

School of Engineering

Publisher

Cambridge Univ Press

Place of publication

40 West 20Th St, New York, USA, Ny, 10011-4211

Rights statement

Copyright 2017 Royal Meteorological Society

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Weather

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