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Expert assessment of alternatives to change the location of the port of Varna

Citation

Nikolova, ND and Armenski, IS and Tchikova, KT and Tenekedjiev, KI, Expert assessment of alternatives to change the location of the port of Varna, Proceedings of the 13th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, 12-14 September 2012, Sofia, Bulgaria, pp. 138-143. ISBN 978-3-902823-13-7 (2012) [Refereed Conference Paper]


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DOI: doi:10.3182/20120912-3-BG-2031.00027

Abstract

The Port of Varna East is one of the main port facilities on the West Black sea coast. A major issue in its future development is the question of whether to keep the port at its present location within the city limits or move it to another location and develop a recreational center on its place. In this practically-oriented study, four alternatives for the future development of the Port of Varna east area are outlined, and a detailed expert-based analysis is conducted. An original procedure, called REPOMP (Randomized Expert Panel Opinion Marginalizing Procedure) is employed for the selection. A hierarchical structure of criteria is elaborated, and experts have provided their opinion regarding those criteria for each alternative. Simulation procedures are used to define the best point estimate and the standard deviation of the total marginal criterion. Hypothesis testing procedure is also employed to define indifference classes of the alternatives.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Keywords:expert panel, hierarchy of criteria, port infrastructure, recreational centre
Research Division:Mathematical Sciences
Research Group:Statistics
Research Field:Applied Statistics
Objective Division:Transport
Objective Group:Water Transport
Objective Field:Port Infrastructure and Management
Author:Nikolova, ND (Professor Nataliya Nikolova)
Author:Tenekedjiev, KI (Professor Kiril Tenekedjiev)
ID Code:115716
Year Published:2012
Deposited By:Maritime and Logistics Management
Deposited On:2017-04-05
Last Modified:2017-05-01
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