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Innovations and limits in methods of forecasting global environmental change

Citation

Brook, BW and Blomqvist, L, Innovations and limits in methods of forecasting global environmental change, Basic and Applied Ecology, 17, (7) pp. 565-575. ISSN 1439-1791 (2016) [Refereed Article]


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2017 Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.baae.2016.06.002

Abstract

Environmental science has developed a diverse set of theories, analytical tools and models to understand and predict ecological responses to human impacts. We review recent innovations in the family of methods used to forecast global environmental change, and offer constructive critiques of five common approaches: phenomenological projections, storyline scenarios, integrated assessment models, decomposition-identity approaches, and global climate simulations. Overall, there is a lack of coherent, empirically based validation for many methods and their assumptions, and only partial incorporation of underlying uncertainties in both parameter estimates and interrelationships of model components. The greatest improvements in global environmental forecasting will likely come from a more systemic approach to quantifying the aggregate socio-economic drivers of the agents of change, along with better integration of multi-disciplinary approaches.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:projection, scenario, integrated assessment, decomposition, multi-criteria decision making analysis, climate models, decoupling
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental Science and Management
Research Field:Environmental Monitoring
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Ecosystem Assessment and Management
Objective Field:Ecosystem Assessment and Management not elsewhere classified
Author:Brook, BW (Professor Barry Brook)
ID Code:115704
Year Published:2016
Deposited By:Plant Science
Deposited On:2017-04-05
Last Modified:2017-11-01
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